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全球经济状况调研 2017年度第二季度

发布时间:2017年07月31日

这项全球经济形势调查(GECS)由ACCA和IMA联合进行,在调查的人数与经济变量的范围方面是全球最大的会计师常规经济调查。调查主要的指数能够较准确地预测OECD国家的GDP增长,并且每日趋势偏差值与衡量预期股价波动性的VIX或“恐惧”指数相关性良好。

GECS结果显示,2017年第二季度,经济信心虽然有轻微的下降,但依然保持在相对较高水平,总体而言全球经济状况良好。这与制造业PMI、官方GDP等其他调查数据的结果相一致。

在第二季度中,南亚地区经济信心最高,北美地区信心相比上一季度虽有所下降,但仍处于第二名。中东地区经济信心最低。与第一季度类似,调查对象(47%)最大的担忧是人工和原材料成本的不断攀升,第二大担忧(40%)是收入的减少,第三大担忧与确保及时付款相关。仅有9%受访者表示担心供应商破产,为最小的担忧。在被调查者列出的主要良性发展中,从科技中收益的机会排名第一(41%),紧随其后的是聚焦利基产品的机会(34%)。令人担忧的是,就未来几个季度的前景而言,只有13%的受访者表示有机会增加订单。今年6月英国大选结果的不确定性似乎对该国的经济信心产生了不利影响,该国经济信心在第二季度大幅下滑,目前处于自2011年GECS调查开始以来的第二低水平。


Carried out jointly by ACCA and IMA, GECS is the largest regular economic survey of accountants in the world, in terms of both the number of respondents and the range of economic variables it monitors. Its main indexes are good predictors of GDP growth in the OECD countries and daily trend deviations correlate well with the VIX or "fear" index, which measures expected stock price volatility.

Economic confidence dipped slightly in the second quarter of 2017, but it remains relatively high. The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) findings are consistent with other survey data, such as the manufacturing PMIs and the official GDP figures, which show the global economy in good shape.  

South Asia is the most confident region in Q2, and although confidence fell slightly in North America, it still comes in second. Confidence levels are lowest in the Middle East. As in Q1, the biggest concern cited by respondents is rising costs (47% of respondents), both in terms of wages and raw materials. Second on the list are worries about decreased income (40% of respondents), followed by concerns about securing prompt payment. Concern about suppliers going out of business is respondents’ smallest concern – cited by just 9%. The opportunity to benefit from innovation is the main positive development listed by respondents (41%), which is followed closely by the opportunity to focus on niche products (34%). Worryingly – in terms of the outlook for the next few quarters – just 13% of respondents cite the opportunity to increase orders. The inconclusive result of the UK’s general election in June appears to have had an adverse impact on the country’s economic confidence, which fell sharply in the second quarter; it is now at its second-lowest level since the GECS began in 2011.

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